BowlingFans.com, The site for the fans, by the fans....
Sponsored Links




ChatBox:

Sponsored Links


Page 3 of 9 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 >
Topic Options
Rate This Topic
#180762 - 09/01/13 12:58 PM Re: New Targeting Formula [Re: sk8shorty01]
Joe Bowler Offline
2x Virtual League Champion

Registered: 04/09/09
Posts: 3824
A/S/L: 50s/M/MD
Originally Posted By: sk8shorty01
Exit point and break point are two completely different things. Just because a ball exits a pattern on 10 doesn't mean it has a break point of 10, it could, or it might have a break point of 6. Depends on the launch angle...

Agreed. To be clear, the first two examples above show the results of adjusting the exit point to match the -31 Exit Point Strategy exactly as prescribed, and the next two examples show adjusting the 40-foot target to match the new targeting formula. In this case, since it is a 40-foot pattern, we are still talking about choosing a target board 40 feet down the lane.

So, the question is, do you still want to keep the same exit board on Pro Anvilane and wood because it's a 40-foot pattern, and that's what the Exit Point Formula tells you to do regardless of the lane surface or ball used (not to mention lane topography, oil type, carrydown, or depletion)? Or, do you want to adjust for the actual lesser amount of hook on Pro Anvilane and actual greater amount of hook on wood? If you decide you would rather adjust to the actual conditions, the new targeting formula can help.
_________________________
USBC (2008-2016):
300s: 9
800s: 7
House: 239
Sport: 210

PBA (2014-2015): $850

Heavy: Nano, HyperCell, Eternal Cell
Medium: IQ Tour, Tour SiC, Tag
Light: Spare+, Tank, Rebel Tank
Spares: WD

Internet advice is offered free, as is, at your own risk.

Top
#10100 - 1 second ago Sponsored Links
Sponsored Links Online   content
Legend

Registered: Fri Aug 27 2004
Posts: 10100
A/S/L: Mountain View, CA
Top
#180766 - 09/01/13 04:41 PM Re: New Targeting Formula [Re: Joe Bowler]
sk8shorty01 Offline
Virtual League Champion x2

Registered: 01/05/09
Posts: 5159
A/S/L: 30/M/Merritt Island, FL
The exit point is what I would use because that has been proven (many times over) to be a great way to get yourself lined up.

So on ProanviLANE I might be standing 15 with a target of 10, the ball exits the pattern on 10 and has a break point of 10.

On old wood lanes I might be standing on 24 with a target of 13, the ball exits the pattern on 10 and has a break point of 8.

So you can see I do adjust based on the lane surface, oil pattern, etc, but the ball still needs to be exiting (there will be exceptions very rarely) at that target board at the end of the pattern. Just because the ball exits the pattern on 10 it doesn't mean it only makes it out to 10, I could play a break point of 5 if I wanted with an exit point of 10.

By using the exit point strategy you know where you want the ball to leave the pattern, now you just figure out the angle you need to take in order to get it to leave the pattern on that board and hit the pocket. This formula gives you the biggest margin for error and has been proven as such by both Kegel and the IRTC.
_________________________
Storm Amatuer Staff Member
BowlersMart.com Staff Member
Logo Infusion Staff Member
IAB Staff Member

PBA Member
USBC Level 1 Certified Coach
Head Coach - Cocoa High School

Career 300 games - 5
Career 800 series - 6
High Scratch Series - 823

Top
#180767 - 09/01/13 05:12 PM Re: New Targeting Formula [Re: sk8shorty01]
Joe Bowler Offline
2x Virtual League Champion

Registered: 04/09/09
Posts: 3824
A/S/L: 50s/M/MD
Originally Posted By: sk8shorty01
This (exit point) formula gives you the biggest margin for error and has been proven as such by both Kegel and the IRTC.

That's a bold claim. One would have to take a close look at Kegel and the IRTC's research, particularly the circumstances of their testing (surfaces, patterns, etc.), and what competing formulas were also tested. This topic is the first time I have shared the new targeting formula. It is not something I have seen or heard discussed anywhere else, so I am pretty sure it has never been tested by Kegel and the IRTC. But, the simple example above from Blueprint, varying only the lane surface from Pro Anvilane to wood, is enough proof for me to know which targeting formula I would choose.
_________________________
USBC (2008-2016):
300s: 9
800s: 7
House: 239
Sport: 210

PBA (2014-2015): $850

Heavy: Nano, HyperCell, Eternal Cell
Medium: IQ Tour, Tour SiC, Tag
Light: Spare+, Tank, Rebel Tank
Spares: WD

Internet advice is offered free, as is, at your own risk.

Top
#180768 - 09/01/13 05:34 PM Re: New Targeting Formula [Re: Joe Bowler]
sk8shorty01 Offline
Virtual League Champion x2

Registered: 01/05/09
Posts: 5159
A/S/L: 30/M/Merritt Island, FL
I never said Kegel and the IRTC tested the "target formula" you are using, I am saying Kegel and the IRTC did many tests on margin for area and it just so happened that they were able to figure out that the area of the lane the ball exited the pattern (across the board from short patterns to long patterns) happened to be [pattern length]-31. They were not going in with the idea that they would use 31 boards. They got lined up on each pattern and found the miss room and then happened to notice in each case the exit point was exactly -31 from the pattern length.

Again, I am not saying your system doesn't work, but to assume the -31 formula is flawed and the big "ah ha" reasoning as to why is because lanes are made out of different materials doesn't make much sense.

I can promise the system works, I have used it for years and have won my PBAX League in back to back seasons. This year I finished with an average above 200 and if it were not for two bad weeks early I would have been over 210. My last 8 weeks of the league (4 games each week) I was averaging over 220.
_________________________
Storm Amatuer Staff Member
BowlersMart.com Staff Member
Logo Infusion Staff Member
IAB Staff Member

PBA Member
USBC Level 1 Certified Coach
Head Coach - Cocoa High School

Career 300 games - 5
Career 800 series - 6
High Scratch Series - 823

Top
#180769 - 09/01/13 06:04 PM Re: New Targeting Formula [Re: Joe Bowler]
Joe Bowler Offline
2x Virtual League Champion

Registered: 04/09/09
Posts: 3824
A/S/L: 50s/M/MD
Everything works until it doesn't work. Until I started bowling on PBAX conditions a few years ago, I would have thought 2:1 adjustments were all that is required in bowling, and my lowest average ever was 195 in my first league back in the days of hard rubber balls. So, I was thankful for the -31 Exit Point Strategy. At the very least, it taught me to move in deeper on longer patterns, and vice-versa. As long as it is working for you, by all means keep using it. But, it must be my luck to bowl on PBAX patterns that play nothing like they are supposed to, where bowlers don't know the pattern length, or even the pattern most of the time, or this week's pattern includes remnants of last week's pattern, or carrydown increases the length of the pattern by 4 feet, and all you can trust is your ball reaction. For that, there is the new targeting formula.
_________________________
USBC (2008-2016):
300s: 9
800s: 7
House: 239
Sport: 210

PBA (2014-2015): $850

Heavy: Nano, HyperCell, Eternal Cell
Medium: IQ Tour, Tour SiC, Tag
Light: Spare+, Tank, Rebel Tank
Spares: WD

Internet advice is offered free, as is, at your own risk.

Top
#180771 - 09/01/13 08:05 PM Re: New Targeting Formula [Re: Joe Bowler]
VFF57 Offline
Legend

Registered: 09/26/08
Posts: 1636
A/S/L: 50's/M/NJ
Quote:
it must be my luck to bowl on PBAX patterns that play nothing like they are supposed to


I know what that's like. Back when I was doing the PBAX league most of the patterns played something like a reverse block. We kept saying to ourselves"this can't be the same conditions the pro's are scoring on..." No two balls thrown the same produced the same reaction. The only pattern that seemed to roughly follow the 31 rule was the Viper.
_________________________
League:
High Game 300
High Series 803
-------------------------
Motiv: Raptor P7
MoRich: Aggressive Motion
Storm: VG,Crossroad,NP
Hammer: Spike,Psycho,Raw Anger,
Cherry Vibe,Taboo Plastic/Spare,
Black Hammer
Columbia: White Dot

Top
#180772 - 09/01/13 09:54 PM Re: New Targeting Formula [Re: Joe Bowler]
sk8shorty01 Offline
Virtual League Champion x2

Registered: 01/05/09
Posts: 5159
A/S/L: 30/M/Merritt Island, FL
And just for reference, I do not go off the listed pattern length on the graph to be 100% gospel, my goal is to see how long the pattern "seems to" play and that is part of the equation.

You always want to throw some test shots (in practice) in other areas of the lane to see if you can find a hidden gem somewhere. In most cases the best place is where the pattern tells you that you should be playing but every once in a great while I find a shot in a different location.
_________________________
Storm Amatuer Staff Member
BowlersMart.com Staff Member
Logo Infusion Staff Member
IAB Staff Member

PBA Member
USBC Level 1 Certified Coach
Head Coach - Cocoa High School

Career 300 games - 5
Career 800 series - 6
High Scratch Series - 823

Top
#180812 - 09/03/13 12:50 PM Re: New Targeting Formula [Re: VFF57]
Joe Bowler Offline
2x Virtual League Champion

Registered: 04/09/09
Posts: 3824
A/S/L: 50s/M/MD
Originally Posted By: VFF57
Quote:
it must be my luck to bowl on PBAX patterns that play nothing like they are supposed to

I know what that's like. Back when I was doing the PBAX league most of the patterns played something like a reverse block. We kept saying to ourselves"this can't be the same conditions the pro's are scoring on..." No two balls thrown the same produced the same reaction. The only pattern that seemed to roughly follow the 31 rule was the Viper.

I can relate. It turned me off to PBAX leagues for a while. You really have to trust the bowling center management to commit the time and resources to provide a genuine PBA-like bowling experience.
_________________________
USBC (2008-2016):
300s: 9
800s: 7
House: 239
Sport: 210

PBA (2014-2015): $850

Heavy: Nano, HyperCell, Eternal Cell
Medium: IQ Tour, Tour SiC, Tag
Light: Spare+, Tank, Rebel Tank
Spares: WD

Internet advice is offered free, as is, at your own risk.

Top
#180813 - 09/03/13 01:01 PM Re: New Targeting Formula [Re: sk8shorty01]
Joe Bowler Offline
2x Virtual League Champion

Registered: 04/09/09
Posts: 3824
A/S/L: 50s/M/MD
Originally Posted By: sk8shorty01
And just for reference, I do not go off the listed pattern length on the graph to be 100% gospel, my goal is to see how long the pattern "seems to" play and that is part of the equation.

You always want to throw some test shots (in practice) in other areas of the lane to see if you can find a hidden gem somewhere. In most cases the best place is where the pattern tells you that you should be playing but every once in a great while I find a shot in a different location.

I appreciate the honest feedback, but that does not inspire any greater confidence in the accuracy of the exit point formula. I was looking online for more information on its origin and what testing has been performed. All I could find were the following links.

http://bowlingknowledge.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=20&Itemid=46

http://bowlingknowledge.info/images/stories/slowinski_btm_3point_targeting_2007.pdf

Both of these links suggest the exit point formula was derived from research performed by Neil Stremmel and published in the April 2006 Bowling This Month magazine. The article was part 3 in a series on entry angle, which generally has more to do with carry percentage than pocket percentage (margin for error).

Unfortunately, that back issue is no longer available on Bowling This Month's site. And, I was unable to find any further info on Joe Slowinski's bowling knowledge site or the Kegel Training Center's site. Hmm...just wondering where is all the research and test data for the exit point formula?
_________________________
USBC (2008-2016):
300s: 9
800s: 7
House: 239
Sport: 210

PBA (2014-2015): $850

Heavy: Nano, HyperCell, Eternal Cell
Medium: IQ Tour, Tour SiC, Tag
Light: Spare+, Tank, Rebel Tank
Spares: WD

Internet advice is offered free, as is, at your own risk.

Top
#180853 - 09/04/13 09:15 AM Re: New Targeting Formula [Re: Joe Bowler]
Joe Bowler Offline
2x Virtual League Champion

Registered: 04/09/09
Posts: 3824
A/S/L: 50s/M/MD
One of Blueprint's features is to roll multiple shots along an intended target line with random variations based on user-defined standard deviations in a bowler's release. The value of this multi-shot simulation is to estimate pocket percentage and margin of error, taking into account all of the variables (ball, layout, lane surface, oil pattern, target line, etc.)

Below are the results comparing the -31 Exit Point Strategy and the New Targeting Formula on Pro Anvilane (-31 top, new bottom).



Attachments
MultiShot 40-Foot Pro Anvilane -31.jpg

MultiShot 40-Foot Pro Anvilane New.jpg


_________________________
USBC (2008-2016):
300s: 9
800s: 7
House: 239
Sport: 210

PBA (2014-2015): $850

Heavy: Nano, HyperCell, Eternal Cell
Medium: IQ Tour, Tour SiC, Tag
Light: Spare+, Tank, Rebel Tank
Spares: WD

Internet advice is offered free, as is, at your own risk.

Top
Page 3 of 9 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 >



Moderator:  Angel, Community Manager 
Savings That Support BowlingCommunity.com
We need your help!
Rather than begging for donations we're asking you to do one simple thing to help keep these forums running smooth:
When shopping for anything on Amazon.com or eBay please use these links to go to the web sites.

This won't cost you a cent!
You'll still get the exact same low prices, deals and free or low cost shipping; it doesn't change anything for you at all! The items do not have to be bowling related; all purchases made through these links help us! Amazon.com and eBay will pay us a small commission for every sale and it's helping us cover the expenses.

BowlingCommunity.com Recent Posts
Any interest in a winter virtual league?
by SteveH - Yesterday at 10:22 PM
Nothing worse than falling apart late in a game
by Jason_C - Yesterday at 10:04 PM
Fall/Winter Leagues 2017-18 thread
by Richie V. - Yesterday at 09:15 PM
Which ball
by djp1080 - Yesterday at 06:18 PM
Entry Angle
by djp1080 - Yesterday at 12:09 PM
Honor scores 2017-18
by Fin09 - 11/17/17 07:27 PM
My low track
by Jason_C - 11/17/17 01:38 PM
Back-up Bowling
by djp1080 - 11/16/17 08:31 PM
Has this happenned to any one
by 82Boat69 - 11/14/17 01:24 PM
Two handed with pinky and ring
by Dylan585 - 11/13/17 02:48 PM
2017 U.S. Open
by Dylan585 - 11/12/17 05:48 PM
Storm Hy-Road Surface
by SteveH - 11/05/17 09:51 PM
Terms Of Use
Use of this community signifies your agreement to the Community Standards and Conditions of Use.

About BowlingFans.com | Contact Us | Advertise With Us | Site Map
Use of this website constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. | Material Connection Disclosure

Copyright © 1998 - 2017 - usrbingeek LLC | Copyright Policy
BowlingFans.com, BowlingFans, The Right Approach, Kegler's Connection, Tour411, BallBeat, BowlingCommunity.com, BowlSearch.com, and Bowling News You Can Use are trademarks of usrbingeek LLC. All other trademarks and tradenames are property of their respective owners.