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#180701 - 08/30/13 01:39 PM New Targeting Formula
Joe Bowler Offline
2x Virtual League Champion

Registered: 04/09/09
Posts: 3824
A/S/L: 50s/M/MD
With all due respect to all its proponents, the Exit Point Strategy (Pattern Length - 31) is flawed. First, I will explain why, then, I will offer a better alternative.

To start with, what has always bugged me about the Exit Point Strategy is:
1. You don't always know the length of the pattern.
2. There are no discernible markers at the end of the pattern to use for targeting purposes even if you know the length.

But, the above are mere inconveniences compared to the real reasons the Exit Point Strategy is flawed:
3. Varying surfaces and volumes of oil in the heads and midlane determine the effective length of the pattern, not the pre-programmed pattern length.
4. Carrydown can increase the effective length of a pattern, while depletion can decrease the effective length of a pattern.

This became very clear to me bowling in a PBAX league over the summer. As an example, the Wolf pattern starts out at 32-feet, but is very heavy up front. After observing the oil streaks from rolled balls at the end of 4 games, the pattern length finished closer to 36 to 40 feet. We happened to be bowling on Brunswick Pro Anvilane. You can bet the same pattern would have played differently on wood.

So, what is a bowler to do? As I have always suggested, trust your ball reaction. Now, I would like to suggest the following formula to go with it. First, you need to calculate the Total Hook with the ball you are currently rolling.
Total Hook = ((Foul Line Board - Arrows Board) * 4) + (17 - Foul Line Board))

Then, you can calculate your optimum target at 40 feet (the close edge of the outer downlane marker)
40-Foot Target = 17 - (Total Hook * .66)

Below are some examples of 40-Foot Targets based on Total Hook
Total Hook, 40-Foot Target
0, 17
5, 13.65
10, 10.3
15, 6.95
20, 3.6
25, 0.25
30, -3.1

With the above 2 formulas, you should never have any difficulty determining where to target downlane, even if you don't know the supposed pattern length. If there are no downlane markers, you can hopefully visualize 2/3 down the lane more easily and consistently than a variable exit point.
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#180712 - 08/30/13 09:10 PM Re: New Targeting Formula [Re: Joe Bowler]
rrb6699 (RayRay) Offline
Virtual League Champion

Registered: 06/07/13
Posts: 513
A/S/L: Single/male/FL
i agree there is no definite pattern length. the machine could buff a foot further on your left lane than on the right lane. an oil jet could have stopped and instead of oil it is a dry strip down the lane. the ball speed also needs to be factored in. i carry a stop watch to check it. usually i'm at 2.4seconds with my baseline setup and approach.

i am a rev-balanced player and can be speed dominant if i need to be. i have been on lanes where the pattern exit strategy will not work at all. i was shooting 25->10 at the arrows an entire game one night when I saw a lower average bowler throw a ball down the gutter and hook it back from the 2 board.. well i tried my version of my 2 board shot to see if the gutter was dry and shot 265 and 246 the last 2 games off the gutter. the ball held the 2 board and like magic roared back at 50 foot mark.

i believe in ball reaction, how the ball gets into the roll phase and angle of entry. If your ball gets into the roll phase at the right spot down lane, your angle of entry can vary widely.

i do not have any confidence in pattern length other than if the pattern is supposed to be, say, 43' then i know i'm going to need to see what the ball does from my baseline shot first. most pros have high ball speed because of the low oil units they deal with most of the time.

if i bowl in a tournament i observe those bowling before me if possible. at least that way no matter what the pattern length is i can see what works and what does not, how their ball rolls and reacts, what angles are carrying for the type of bowler nearest to my baseline speed, hook and roll.

i will have to study your formula more to apply it for myself and let you know how it stands up. but, i do like the idea of not taking things as gospel just because the pattern length and type is advertised as such.

i do not quite get your 0, 17 part of your 40 foot target list.


rr
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#180717 - 08/30/13 11:50 PM Re: New Targeting Formula [Re: rrb6699 (RayRay)]
Joe Bowler Offline
2x Virtual League Champion

Registered: 04/09/09
Posts: 3824
A/S/L: 50s/M/MD
Originally Posted By: rrb6699 (RayRay)
i do not quite get your 0, 17 part of your 40 foot target list.

The new targeting formula uses actual hook (instead of supposed pattern length) to determine the target at 40-feet. The list provides a few examples of 40-foot targets based on total hook. At one extreme, if a particular ball on a long, heavy pattern produced 0 total hook, the 40-foot target would be the 17 board. At the other extreme, if a particular ball on a short, light pattern produced 30 boards hook, the 40-foot target would be off the lane, by -3.1 boards. And so on, in between. In brief, all you need to know is how many boards your ball is actually hooking and the formula to calculate your optimum target at 40 feet.
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#180719 - 08/31/13 12:30 AM Re: New Targeting Formula [Re: Joe Bowler]
dgordon0408 Offline
Virtual League Champion x2

Registered: 07/06/11
Posts: 753
A/S/L: 17/M/Deltona Florida
I agree that sometimes the lane conditions don't play exactly like the graph states, but I also believe that the idea of the exit point formula is not to give an exact exit point off the pattern, the goal of it is to give you an idea of where your ball should be exiting the pattern whether it's the 3 board or the 16th board. True that if you took a flat 40 foot pattern and put it on a lane with hpls, a lane with spls, pro anvilane, or wood that it would play differently, you would see earlier hook on some or less hook on another but that's why bowling is a difficult sport physically and mentally, we have to adapt to something we can't see. Kegel has it's ideas and beliefs on lane play and everything involving the sport. When you specifically look at the exit point formula it gives a general idea of where your ball should exit the pattern. If you look at the pros lets say tommy jones and norm duke put them on any lane surface and put cheetah out their balls will both be exiting around the 4 board at 35 feet but from different angles, norms more than likely from 4-5 at the arrows and Tommy's from probably 7-8 at the arrows. Especially in this sport nothing is going to be perfect, what works for some might not work for others. But having many pros going to kegel and foreign countries bringing their national teams to kegel for coaching kinda speaks for itself
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#180723 - 08/31/13 12:58 AM Re: New Targeting Formula [Re: dgordon0408]
Joe Bowler Offline
2x Virtual League Champion

Registered: 04/09/09
Posts: 3824
A/S/L: 50s/M/MD
Originally Posted By: dgordon0408
I agree that sometimes the lane conditions don't play exactly like the graph states, but I also believe that the idea of the exit point formula is not to give an exact exit point off the pattern, the goal of it is to give you an idea of where your ball should be exiting the pattern whether it's the 3 board or the 16th board. True that if you took a flat 40 foot pattern and put it on a lane with hpls, a lane with spls, pro anvilane, or wood that it would play differently, you would see earlier hook on some or less hook on another but that's why bowling is a difficult sport physically and mentally, we have to adapt to something we can't see. Kegel has it's ideas and beliefs on lane play and everything involving the sport. When you specifically look at the exit point formula it gives a general idea of where your ball should exit the pattern. If you look at the pros lets say tommy jones and norm duke put them on any lane surface and put cheetah out their balls will both be exiting around the 4 board at 35 feet but from different angles, norms more than likely from 4-5 at the arrows and Tommy's from probably 7-8 at the arrows. Especially in this sport nothing is going to be perfect, what works for some might not work for others. But having many pros going to kegel and foreign countries bringing their national teams to kegel for coaching kinda speaks for itself

So, if I understand correctly, you agree:
1. the exit point formula provides a less than exact exit point off the pattern.
2. a lane with hpls, a lane with spls, pro anvilane, or wood would play differently
3. bowling is a difficult sport physically and mentally, we have to adapt to something we can't see

But, you trust the exit point formula because many pros go to kegel and foreign countries bring their national teams to kegel for coaching. In the meantime, I don't see any apparent effort to understand the new targeting formula and how it solves all of the above problems. That does speak for itself.

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#180725 - 08/31/13 02:50 AM Re: New Targeting Formula [Re: Joe Bowler]
dgordon0408 Offline
Virtual League Champion x2

Registered: 07/06/11
Posts: 753
A/S/L: 17/M/Deltona Florida
You are correct as to what you understood from my statement, however I trust and believe in the exit point formula due to the fact that it has success on multiple levels, I did try to understand your new formula but who is to determine overall hook, while one player may have x amount of hook on one pattern another may have way less, I personally believe that one reason other than flat out ability, pros have a higher scoring pace based off the fact that they all do play very similar exit points giving them more room that they generally don't need to score. If everyone was using an exit point that was specific to them lane conditions would be completely trashed and the scoring pace much lower
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#180726 - 08/31/13 06:44 AM Re: New Targeting Formula [Re: Joe Bowler]
rrb6699 (RayRay) Offline
Virtual League Champion

Registered: 06/07/13
Posts: 513
A/S/L: Single/male/FL
ok, i wasnt sure if that did mean 0 hook. one more question so i can apply this and the PL-31 side-by-side and see what happens. i asked you this before, but, was [total] hook from ball contact point at foul line or hook from breakpoint back to 17 board?

rr

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#180728 - 08/31/13 09:10 AM Re: New Targeting Formula [Re: rrb6699 (RayRay)]
Joe Bowler Offline
2x Virtual League Champion

Registered: 04/09/09
Posts: 3824
A/S/L: 50s/M/MD
Originally Posted By: rrb6699 (RayRay)
ok, i wasnt sure if that did mean 0 hook. one more question so i can apply this and the PL-31 side-by-side and see what happens. i asked you this before, but, was [total] hook from ball contact point at foul line or hook from breakpoint back to 17 board?
rr

Sure, you are welcome to try the new targeting formula side-by-side with the exit point formula. The total hook formula uses the ball contact point at the foul line and the rollover board at the arrows for input. The formula calculates the total hook from the foul line out to the breakpoint and back to the pocket at 17 board.
_________________________
USBC (2008-2016):
300s: 9
800s: 7
House: 239
Sport: 210

PBA (2014-2015): $850

Heavy: Nano, HyperCell, Eternal Cell
Medium: IQ Tour, Tour SiC, Tag
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Internet advice is offered free, as is, at your own risk.

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#180729 - 08/31/13 09:20 AM Re: New Targeting Formula [Re: dgordon0408]
Joe Bowler Offline
2x Virtual League Champion

Registered: 04/09/09
Posts: 3824
A/S/L: 50s/M/MD
Originally Posted By: dgordon0408
I did try to understand your new formula but who is to determine overall hook, while one player may have x amount of hook on one pattern another may have way less.

To be clear, you are not trying to determine how much the pattern hooks for all the players, just how much hook you are getting with the particular ball you are using. The first formula helps you do that.

Originally Posted By: dgordon0408
I personally believe that one reason other than flat out ability, pros have a higher scoring pace based off the fact that they all do play very similar exit points giving them more room that they generally don't need to score. If everyone was using an exit point that was specific to them lane conditions would be completely trashed and the scoring pace much lower

That is a good point about lane play strategy. There will be times you want to separate yourself from the pack, but most times it helps all of the players to focus on the same area of the lane. How the new targeting formula can help you is to select the right ball from your arsenal, with the right amount of total hook, to best play that particular area of the lane.
_________________________
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House: 239
Sport: 210

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Heavy: Nano, HyperCell, Eternal Cell
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Spares: WD

Internet advice is offered free, as is, at your own risk.

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#180733 - 08/31/13 11:49 AM Re: New Targeting Formula [Re: Joe Bowler]
56bird Offline
Pro of the Year Contender

Registered: 01/06/13
Posts: 706
A/S/L: 47 Male, Malta NY
This reply may not end up being very on-topic and if it's not I apologize, but I think it will relate somewhat nevertheless.

I was remembering a thread from earlier in the year, I forget what we were even talking about but I was arguing in favor of such-and-such core or such-and-such surface or whatever on such-and-such pattern with the idea of ensuring the ball gets into a roll.

I was somewhat chastised by one of our fellow forum members, who informed me something of the effect "Getting the ball into a roll is not the be-all and end-all, your ball must get into all of the phases of motion at the correct times." Not a direct quote, sorry but I'm way too lazy to look it up smile

Having had some months to ruminate on that, I have to agree and disagree. It is NOT be be-all. It IS the end-all smile

The idea of "pattern length" is a little nebulous in itself. If you look at a visual representation of an oil pattern, the machine may go to a certain stated length, but you notice the heavier oil application varies in length at least on most patterns. An extreme example of what I'm talking about is the THS "Top Hat". A Top Hat might be 10:1 so there is still *something* on the outsides past the dots or whatever, but the outsides will play a heck of a lot "shorter" than the insides.

I was a little frustrated with one of my teammates bowling in a PBAX league over the summer. Dude was significantly lower rev than me. He seemed to play with no knowledge of the patterns, with only the idea of being left of everyone, including me, on his mind. If I moved left, he moved farther left, whether it was actually to his advantage or not. I mean, when you're playing cheetah fairly straight down the boards at third arrow... do you not realize the pattern is pretty much entirely flat there????

For me, the challenge is in finding that area that is not completely flat, and choosing the combination of ball, line, and speed/release to take full advantage. It's more "feel" and "observation" than "math". Getting your ball to a prescribed exit point will do NOTHING for you if the ball continues to skid thru the pin deck...
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